Estimate daily active usage of Experiences in a priority market

Problem Statement Description

Product context: Airbnb is a travel marketplace connecting guests and hosts; its products include stays, experiences, host tools, guest booking, trust and safety, payments, and reviews.

Airbnb wants to understand the daily active usage of Experiences in a priority market, with particular attention to budget travelers who may be looking for affordable, local, and memorable activities during a trip. The task is to estimate how many users actively engage with Airbnb Experiences on a typical day in that market.

For this guesstimate, define what “daily active usage” means before estimating it. Usage could include browsing Experiences, saving or sharing an Experience, messaging a host, booking, attending, or leaving a review. You should make a clear choice about the activity threshold and keep the estimate tied to that definition.

The estimate should reflect the marketplace nature of Airbnb: travelers create demand, hosts provide supply, and usage depends on travel volume, trip frequency, destination attractiveness, affordability, seasonality, and trust in local experiences. The market should be treated as a concrete priority geography rather than an abstract global average.

The experience should consider:

- The specific market scope, such as a city, country, or metro area, and whether the estimate is for residents, inbound travelers, or both

- The unit being estimated: unique daily active users, sessions, bookings, or participants

- The relevant population base, including travelers staying in the market and potential local users

- Budget-traveler penetration and how price sensitivity affects discovery, booking, and attendance

- Frequency of Experience usage per trip and whether most users browse without booking

- Supply constraints, including number and quality of active hosts, available time slots, and category mix

- Seasonality, weekday versus weekend behavior, and event-driven spikes

- Sanity checks against travel volume, accommodation demand, and plausible conversion rates

The goal is to produce a clear, structured estimate with transparent assumptions, simple math, and sensitivity around the biggest drivers. The final number should be useful for product and business decisions such as market prioritization, supply investment, growth planning, or evaluating whether Experiences has enough active demand in the selected market.