Estimate how many grocery shoppers could adopt Support in one year

Problem Statement Description

Product context: DoorDash is a local commerce and delivery platform; its products include restaurant delivery, DashPass, grocery and retail delivery, merchant tools, and dasher tools.

DoorDash is evaluating the potential one-year adoption of Support among grocery shoppers: consumers who use DoorDash to order groceries and may need help before, during, or after fulfillment. In grocery, support needs can be more frequent and nuanced than restaurant delivery because of substitutions, out-of-stock items, weighted produce, missing bags, delivery timing, refunds, and communication between shoppers, Dashers, merchants, and DoorDash.

Your task is to estimate how many grocery shoppers could adopt Support within one year. Treat “adopt” as a behavior you must define clearly, such as using a DoorDash support experience at least once, opting into proactive support, engaging with automated issue resolution, or another reasonable interpretation. The estimate should be grounded in a clear market sizing funnel rather than a single top-down guess.

The experience should consider:

- The geographic and customer scope you are estimating, such as U.S. DoorDash grocery shoppers versus a broader market.

- The unit of analysis: unique grocery shoppers, active grocery customers, support-eligible orders, or support interactions.

- A clear definition of “adoption” and whether it means first-time use, repeated use, or enrollment in a support feature.

- The grocery shopping population, DoorDash’s reachable share, grocery ordering frequency, and expected issue/support incidence.

- Adoption drivers such as order complexity, substitution rates, delivery reliability, trust, refund speed, and awareness of support options.

- Segmentation by new versus existing DoorDash users, high-frequency versus occasional grocery shoppers, and urban versus suburban markets.

- Assumptions around rollout timing, product visibility, conversion, retention, and seasonality over the first year.

- Sensitivity checks for the assumptions that most affect the estimate, plus a sanity check against marketplace scale and operational feasibility.

The goal is to produce a structured, defensible estimate of one-year Support adoption among DoorDash grocery shoppers, showing your assumptions, calculation path, and the key variables that would most change the result.